Alameda County's population reached 1.5 million people in 2005, making it the second most populous county in the region behind Santa Clara County. Oakland is the most populous city in the county, with 414,100 people. Oakland ranks as the third most populous city in the Bay Area.

By 2030, Alameda County is anticipated to have nearly 1.9 million residents. This is an increase of nearly 400,000 people over the next 25 years. The cities in northern Alameda County are projected to have 40 percent of this population growth, with the largest share in Oakland. Nearly 103,000 additional people will live in Oakland by 2030, for a total population of 516,900.

Eastern Alameda County is expected to grow at a rate of about 1,400 households per year, adding 21,500 households through 2015. East County is also expected to have the highest percentage change in population and households between 2000 and 2030, adding about 118,100 new residents and about 41,350 new households by 2030. The Dublin area is projected to have the highest percentage growth in households for the county with a 172 percent increase by 2030.

Historical Development Patterns

Development in Alameda County originally centered on established cities such as Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda, with additional town centers in places such as Hayward, Pleasanton, and Livermore. These communities feature relatively compact, grid street fabrics and retain shopping districts established at former streetcar stops.

In Alameda County, development eventually spread southward to communities such as Castro Valley, Union City, and Fremont, and east across the hills to Dublin and outlying portions of Pleasanton and Livermore. These newer areas are characterized by a greater separation of land uses and discontinuous street patterns, making them more automobile-dependent. They are currently the most rapidly growing parts of the county.

Development intensities vary remarkably across cities in Alameda. Emeryville, which has been transforming industrial land to other uses, now has the highest average residential density-more than 20 units per acre-of any city in the region, including San Francisco. In contrast, average residential densities in the Tri-Valley cities of Dublin, Pleasanton, and Livermore range from five to six units per acre.

Projected Growth in Alameda County

Since the adoption of policy-based projections, Alameda's population growth forecast is based on a conceptual growth pattern that may be different from existing local general plans and zoning. The forecast assumes a slight increase in housing density for existing residential areas in the northern cities of Alameda, Oakland, Berkeley, Piedmont, and Emeryville. It also calls for significant housing development at the former Alameda Naval Air Station, as well as other key sites. Denser mixed-use development is expected in areas near BART stations and transit hubs along major transit corridors, such as San Pablo Avenue and Mission, Hesperian, and International Boulevards. This is expected to particularly affect development patterns in Union City and Fremont. In the eastern part of the county, development is planned for areas near the BART and Altamont Commuter Express (ACE) stations.

The city-centered growth in the Tri-Valley cities of Dublin, Pleasanton, and Livermore focuses on developing compact neighborhoods within walking distance of schools, stores, services, and public transit, while preserving the open space and natural features of the Tri-Valley area.