Over 50 percent of Marin County-the highest proportion for any county in the Bay Area-is protected open space. Half of this is federal and state parks, most notably Point Reyes National Seashore and the Golden Gate National Recreation Area.

Urban areas in Marin are located primarily along the Highway 101 corridor. Together the two largest cities, San Rafael and Novato, are home to over 40 percent of Marin's residents and a majority of the county's jobs. Nearly one third of the county's population lives in unincorporated areas-more than in any other Bay Area county, except Sonoma.

Marin has the second lowest overall residential density in the region, after Sonoma County, and the intensities of employment and retail land use are low as well.

Population Growth

Today, Marin is home to nearly 252,000 people. By 2030, that will grow by 13 percent to 284,000 people. Marin is expected to continue to be one of the least populated counties in the region. Marin has been and will continue to have one of the slowest population growth rates as well. Marin had the lowest population growth rates of all nine Bay Area counties between 1980 and 2000.

One factor limiting Marin's population growth is the county's aging population. As in other Bay Area counties, the average age of Marin's existing residents is increasing. By 2030, more than 35 percent of the county's population will be over 60 years of age. In contrast, the over-60 age cohort represented only about 14 percent of the county's population in 1980. In 2000, it was 18 percent. The rapid aging of the county's population will have broad public policy implications for the provision of public and private services.

Another factor influencing Marin's population is its low number of persons per household. The only county with a smaller rate is San Francisco, where a higher percent of its households live in smaller homes and multiple family dwellings. Marin, in contrast, has predominantly average-sized to large single-family units which do not have many occupants.

Between 2000 and 2015, Marin County is projected to add 23,900 residents, a total increase of 9.6 percent, or less than 1 percent annually. Marin will become the slowest growing county after 2015, adding only four percent to its population between 2015 and 2030. While Marin's overall population and household growth through 2030 will be slightly less than in previous forecasts, the character of that growth will be markedly different. Only two cities will see double-digit growth between 2000 and 2015: Novato is projected to add 17 percent, or 3,480 total households, and Larkspur will add 10 percent, equaling a total increase of 860 households. From 2015 to 2030, Larkspur will lead all Marin County cities in percentage increases in the number of households with 11 percent, followed by Corte Madera and Novato at 8 percent each.

Projected Growth in Marin County

Since the adoption of policy-based projections, the forecast for Marin County is based on a conceptual growth pattern that may be different from existing plans and zoning. Future growth in Marin County will occur primarily in already-developed areas. Infill development in the cities of Novato and San Rafael will slightly increase the populations of existing residential communities in these cities. The Northwestern Pacific rail line will offer improved transportation access to the towns of Novato and San Rafael, as well as promote new residential and mixed-use developments adjacent to the new rail stations.

San Rafael will continue to revitalize its downtown with intensified, mixed-use development and a large urban office campus. More mixed-use development will occur in the downtown areas of Fairfax, Larkspur, and the unincorporated area known as Marin City. This pattern of development will allow for slight increases in these communities' housing and employment.