San Francisco, which is both a county and a single city, is the most urbanized of the Bay Area counties, with more than 90 percent of its acreage developed. San Francisco is also a primary employment hub for the region and beyond. The County is well-served by local and regional buses, trains, and ferries. In 2000, 280,000 people commuted into San Francisco every day-a number projected to increase to 345,000 by 2020.

At the same time, displacement of existing San Francisco residents and businesses is growing at an alarming rate. According to a quarterly survey of apartment building owners, the average rent for an apartment in San Francisco has doubled in the past five years and is now well over $2,000 per month. Commercial rents have followed suit, doubling between 1998 and 2000.

San Francisco neighborhoods contain a broad range of residential densities, ranging from 25 housing units per acre in the Richmond and Sunset districts to 40 in the Mission and 86 in Chinatown and North Beach. On average, both residential and nonresidential densities are four times the regional average. The intensity of San Francisco development supports its standing as the Bay Area county with the lowest average number of vehicles per household-an average of 1.13 compared to the regional average of 1.85.

Population Growth

In 2000, the population of the City and County of San Francisco was recorded by the Census Bureau as 776,733. This is the first time the city's population has surpassed the count of the 1950 Census, when it was recorded at 775,400, and it is enough to rank San Francisco as the region's second-most populous city, behind San Jose. Although San Francisco is only the fourth-most populous county in the region, it certainly has the densest residential development of any Bay Area county. For that matter, it is one of the most densely populated cities in the entire United States. However that density is far from uniform. The root of the strong demand for housing in San Francisco is not only its location as a job nucleus for the region and the state, but also its geographically central position within the region, its standing as a cultural and entertainment center, and its attractiveness for recent immigrants.

New residential development in San Francisco has been constrained, however, by high construction costs, by the high price of land and, in some cases, by neighborhood opposition to new development. As more areas in San Francisco, such as Mission Bay, are opened to redevelopment and other areas away from the center of the region constrain their capacity, the creation of new housing in San Francisco is expected to increase.

San Francisco will add over 158,000 persons and almost 73,000 households between 2000 and 2030. San Francisco is projected to maintain its position as the region's second-most populous city and the fourth-most populous county over the next twenty five years. Its share of the region's total population and households are expected to increase, due to its central location and access to jobs and transit.

Projected Growth in San Francisco County

Since the adoption of policy-based projections, San Francisco's population forecast is based on a conceptual growth pattern that may be different from the City's existing general plans and zoning. Conceptually, it promotes a better jobs/housing balance by building more housing throughout the City, particularly in the downtown. In some residential areas, the housing increase is slight, while in other areas-extending out from the downtown along major transit corridors, such as Geary, California, and Mission-a dense mix of offices, stores, and housing is expected. Housing and employment growth will increase along the Church Street corridor, as well as in Dolores Heights and in Bayview/Hunters Point. The development of mixed-use centers of office, retail, and housing around neighborhood BART stations is also assumed.

This development will occur along the new Third Street light-rail line that extends from Visitacion Valley and Bayview/Hunters Point to Chinatown, and near a Caltrain station relocated from Paul Avenue to Silver and Oakdale Avenues.